This election year’s “October Surprise” has come a month early and has landed like a stink bomb inside the Beltway.  The Washington Post grimly reports that, contrary to conventional wisdom and Democratic hopes, the voters who are most fired up for the November midterm elections are not sexually active women, but Republican men.  According to data from the polling company YouGov, “The group that reports the most enthusiasm about voting is the polar opposite of what many expect: Republican men.”  Worse yet, “this enthusiasm has grown.”  Democrats saw a bump in enthusiasm after the Supreme Court’s June ruling delegating abortion laws to the states.  That initial surge appears to have waned.  The Post’s political analyst, Philip Bump, regretfully informs readers, “The idea that Democratic women in particular are newly and exceptionally energized doesn’t get much support.”

Political pollsters regularly underestimate Republican enthusiasm.  Pundits speculate that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests voters were too embarrassed to reveal their secret support for then-candidate Donald Trump.  As the Washington Examiner points out, however, in 2020, the forecasts for Senate and gubernatorial candidates were even more skewed against the GOP.  In other words, pollsters weren’t just blinded by Trump’s mysterious MAGA magic.  They were blinkered by the GOP brand.

It’s too soon to tell if it will be raining men in for the GOP November. Republicans hope it pours.