Nearly all media commentators warned us that Giorgia Meloni was the heir to the fascist dictator Benito Mussolini and thus a danger to democracy.

That she called herself a conservative and proposed nothing far right made no difference.

Nor did it matter that it was this, rather than any desire to resurrect fascism, that persuaded Italians to elect her in September 2022 to be Italy’s first female Prime Minister.

How wrong they were, these media experts who form such a vital part of the un-elected liberal-left establishment which these days wields so much power.

Now, belatedly, they are being forced by reality to say - through gritted teeth - that Giorgia Meloni is not who many people – not them of course - said she was.

To admit that their truth was not the truth would be too big a loss of face.

Some of them – heaven forbid – have begun to praise Meloni as a force for good both inside and outside Italy.

They are even saying that so weak are German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron that the fiery Italian female is filling the vacuum left by Angela Merkel as de facto leader of the EU.

Almost unbelievably that was the message from CNN - the mother ship of woke – in a recent profile of her (18 february) by one of its top talking heads, Fareed Zakaria, said “tough but friendly, she is increasingly looking like the face of Europe's future. It's Meloni's Moment”.

This past month or so, such sacred oracles of the liberal-left élite as The New York Times and The Economist have also published lengthy eulogies.

The former said her success last month (2 February) in persuading a highly reluctant Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, not to use his veto to scupper the EU’s new €50 billion financial aid package to Ukraine has “sealed her credibility” as a top tier leader.

Her record so far proves that “the so-called far right” – said the latter - can turn out once in office to be “run-of-the-mill conservatives” and Italy for once is the EU country giving least cause for concern.

One major reason for the media volte-face is Ukraine. They assume that anyone they call “far right” must be keen on Vladimir Putin. But Meloni most definitely is not.

She chose to launch this year’s Italian presidency of the G7 last Saturday (24 February) on the second anniversary of the Russian invasion in Kiev which she called “the heart of the fight for Europe’s freedom”. “Ukraine is fighting for the whole of Europe … which is why we will be by its side for as long as necessary,” she said.

But what if Donald Trump becomes US President in November?

Meloni gets on surprisingly well with Joe Biden, despite being poles apart on most issues, because she backs his policy on Ukraine.

But she sees Trump as a kindred anti-establishment right-wing spirit and was a key speaker - her English is good - at the 2022 CPAC conference of America’s conservative activists.

Trump has however just threatened angrily that if re-elected he will encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that does not spend the agreed 2% of GDP on defence.

Only 11 of 31 NATO members were expected to meet that target for 2023, according to estimates published by NATO. Germany (1.57%), France (1.90%) and Italy (1.46%) do not.

Meloni has said that she is determined to do so, but has not so far.

Few believe Trump will leave NATO, or force it to abandon military aid to Ukraine, but he is sure to try and browbeat Europe into paying more for its defence. His re-election would put Meloni on the spot about that but also present her with the opportunity as the only EU leader able to act as a bridge between him and Europe.

Nor has Meloni, as her critics feared, caused trouble with the EU Commission. However hostile she was in the past to the single currency and ever closer integration, she cannot afford to be at the moment. Indeed, she has become a close ally of centre-right EU President Ursula von der Leyen and backs her for a second term.

The EU has earmarked almost €200 billion (£180 billion) in grants and loans to Italy from its €800 billion Covid recovery fund – far more than for any other member state – to be activated in stages until 2026 but subject to labyrinthine conditions.

This EU cash is of existential importance to Italy whose economy and wages have hardly grown in real terms since the introduction of the euro in 1999.

Italy’s public debt as a percentage of GDP – 140% – is one of the highest on the planet though down from a peak of 155% in 2020. Its fertility rate at 1.3 children per fertile woman is among the lowest and its population which is declining one of the oldest. Its youth unemployment rate - 20% - is among the highest in Europe – though that’s the lowest it’s been since before the global financial crash in 2008 – likewise the overall unemployment rate of 7.2%.

But the total number of Italians in full-time work in 2023 – Meloni’ìs first full year in power - increased by 456,000 - that’s 61,9% of working age Italians. While that is very low compared to a country like Germany – 77% - it is a historic high for Italy,

Meloni has also cut taxes for the poor and increased welfare especially for working mothers.

Italy’s GDP grew by a feeble 0.7% last year, hardly much worse than France (0.9%) and far better than Germany (minus 0.3%). Italy is not expected to do any better this year but nor is France - Germany is due to see a rise of 0.3%.

Unable to easily fault Meloni on the economy either, her critics are reduced to use a different tactic: but she has failed to stop the illegal migrants.

But that’s not exactly true.

Yes, a near record 157,000 migrants arrived by sea in Italy last year from north Africa – two thirds from Tunisia - which has replaced Libya as the main departure point.

But since October the number has dropped by a third compared to the same period in 2022-23 – and by two thirds so fasr in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. This past week, 159 arrived compared to 1,500 the same week in 2023.

This is because the EU deal Meloni orchestrated last July with the support of von der Leyen to pay Tunisia a €1billion aid package plus €105 million to turn back the migrant boats at last began to work.

The real game-changer however could turn out to be a second deal she struck with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama to off-shore migrants picked up in the Mediterranean to two purpose-built detention centres in Albania.

The aim is to process 3,000 migrants a month only from safe countries who by definition are not real refugees. But as most are from countries where there is no war that’s the majority. Those refused asylum can be held for up to 18 months. The EU Commission has indicated the scheme does not violate EU law as Albania is outside the EU and it has just been approved by the Albanian Supreme Court and Parliament.

Refusal by their countries of origin to take back migrants held in Albania may prove to be the scheme's Achilles Heel. Regardless of that, however, the prospect of being locked up in Albania for 18 months is sure to act as a powerful deterrent to any migrant thinking of paying €1,500 for a place on a people smuggler boat.

The scheme is due to start in May on the eve of the June elections to the European Parliament at which the migrant crisis will be a key issue and the right across the bloc is expected to achieve its best ever results.

Yes, this does indeed look like Meloni’s moment.