Henry Luce, publisher of Time magazine, coined the term “American Century” in 1941, almost nine months before Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. He intended the phrase to describe what he saw in the decades ahead, which turned out to be largely correct. In the next six decades, the United States won two world wars, one hot against the Axis powers and one cold against the Soviet empire. Without necessarily so intending, and despite numerous imperfections, mistakes, and defeats, Washington created a kind of “world order,” which we basically still inhabit. This “order” has been and remains defensive and reactive in nature, not enforcing peace and stability affirmatively, but trying to deter or respond to threats when they arise, as they do so often.

Many countries, probably a majority at various times, resisted not just “Pax Americana,” but what it stood for: free peoples, under free governments, living freely. Soviet Communists obviously despised the American Century, and their Russian successors are waging war against it in Ukraine even now. China’s Communist Party retained power while the Soviet Union disintegrated, brutally repressed dissent in Tienanmen Square in 1989, and then followed for decades Deng Xiaoping’s policy of “hide and bide”: hide your capabilities and bide your time. Now, most immediately along China’s Indo-Pacific periphery, but also increasingly worldwide, China is no longer hiding and biding.

In addition, in the 1950’s and 1960’s, newly independent states, former colonies of collapsed European empires, tried repeatedly to create a “Third World, a “new world order,” a “new world information and communication order,” and more, all of which are now merely historical curiosities. Nonetheless, present today throughout the former Third World are continuing, grave problems of international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Internal strife has produced the near-collapse or actual disintegration of several post-colonial states, and more may follow.

What exactly motivated the United States, from 1945 on, to fashion the partial, ad hoc, incomplete “order” we now see? Contrary to familiar anti-American propaganda, we were not motivated by imperial aspirations, certainly not compared to Europe’s conquests in preceding centuries or prior great empires. Secretary of State Colin Powell, paraphrasing World War II General Mark Clark, often said, “the only land we ever asked for was to bury our dead.”

Nor, also contrary to contemporary criticism, was America obsessed with spreading democracy. Instead of looking exclusively to Woodrow Wilson’s view that America’s World War I goal was “to make the world safe for democracy,” the more accurate, realistic view was that of former Republican President Theodore Roosevelt, who said  “First and foremost, we are to make the world safe for ourselves. This is our primary interest. This is our war, America’s war.”

Stemming from a variety of causes, America’s complex, post-1945 role internationally, along with its Free World allies, launched multiple experiments in foreign affairs to help restore peace and stability. Some collective-security efforts, notably the United Nations, failed, and continue to fail in the world’s most important political conflicts, like the Cold War. By contrast, collective-defense efforts worked, notably NATO, the most successful politico-military alliance in history. Outside the North Atlantic area, Washington forged strong bilateral alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and others. In economic affairs, new financial and trade institutions were created, some successful, some not, and needing either reform or abolition. Much of this effort was explicitly directed again Communism’s threat, and it was never designed to be comprehensive. All of it has evolved, some parts better than others, as the world changed.

Those dissatisfied with this American-led effort are free to suggest other, more-workable alternatives. But who, or what, can perform such a role? And, since anarchy is the world’s default position, if America were to retire to its shores, the central risk is that whoever rushed to fill the vacuum would not have the Free World’s best interests at heart.

The United Nations is certainly not the answer. Russia and China, permanent Security Council members, have the veto power protecting them against any meaningful UN action. Because the veto applies to amendments to the UN Charter, Moscow and Beijing are totally secure within the UN.

Nor is the European Union the answer. One dangerous contemporary fantasy is the idea that the EU was principally responsible for preventing war on the Continent. Instead, allied occupation of the defeated Axis powers, followed by basing substantial NATO forces during the Cold War, meant that not a sparrow fell in Europe’s defense-industrial complex without Washington knowing. Unlike the post-1918 period, under an essentially permanent foreign troop presence, Europe’s defeated nations did not rise again to threaten world peace. And it was Ronald Reagan, not an EU leader, who publicly said, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.”

Since the virus of US isolationism has recently reappeared among both Republicans and Democrats (albeit for different reasons), it is critical that Americans and foreigners alike appreciate that Washington’s foreign policy does not, and never has, stem purely from altruism. This reality should not concern friends and allies, but reassure them; acting to support a country’s own interests is far firmer ground on which to form alliances and friendships than fickle ideological theorizing or emotional impulses.

Admittedly, building even an incomplete, imperfect order was easier when America’s natural allies recognized both the need and their own initial inability to take the necessary steps until they recovered from World War II. Former Axis powers, of course, took no role until the Cold War’s dimensions became clear.

Unfortunately, and unexpectedly, despite the overwhelming, peaceful victory of the US-led anti-Communist bloc, the Cold War’s ending debilitated Western collective defense, and we are only now recovering. Some said the USSR’s collapse meant we had reached “the end of history.” They saw a “peace dividend” as the reward, resulting in massive cuts to NATO and other allied defense spending which did not even begin to recover until the 9/11 attacks woke the world to the threat of international terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

George W. Bush withdrew the United States from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty to build national missile defenses for the United States and for allies. Even so, memories were short. Military spending had decreased so dangerously that even Barack Obama sought to persuade NATO to increase defense spending, agreeing in 2014, to reach spending levels of 2% of GDP by 2024. Although Donald Trump gained notoriety by stressing the 2% target, he was actually just saying more loudly what other Americans, including Obama, had said for years: the allies should bear their fair share of the burden. Many are, unfortunately still nowhere near achieving the target.

In 2019, Emmanuel Macron famously said NATO was “brain dead.” Russia proved him wrong, although the West collectively failed to deter the invasion, and still doesn’t have an adequate strategy to defeat Moscow’s aggression. Nonetheless, NATO proved sufficiently attractive, despite Macron’s view, for Finland and Sweden to seek membership. Perhaps the new arrivals will encourage existing NATO members to meet their budget commitments.

Thus, as with the founding of NATO and America’s other post-1945 alliances, it took visible threats to force the complacent, bourgeois West to see that international risks and dangers had not disappeared. And the threats came in many ways worldwide. Led in many respects by Australia and New Zealand, we began to understand the nature of China’s threat to international telecommunications, using “businesses” like ZTE and Huawei to gain control of fifth-generation systems so they could channel whatever data they desired back to Beijing.

That in turn led to a better understanding of Beijing’s whole-of-society efforts -- economic and social as well as political and military measures -- to gain hegemony along its vast Indo-Pacific periphery, and ultimately worldwide.

Beijing is threatening Taiwan and the East China Sea; claims to have annexed the South China Sea, menacing all the littoral nations; increased provocations and deployments along its southern borders, from Vietnam to India; and is using its Belt-and-Road Initiative to extend its influence across Africa and the Middle East, and over Europe as well.

Joseph Biden’s withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, following Trump’s disastrously bad agreement with the Taliban, led to catastrophic consequences, opening Afghanistan once again to be a haven for international terrorists, creating a vacuum for China and Russia to fill, and oppressing the Afghan people. Iran continued progress toward deliverable nuclear weapons, as did North Korea, notwithstanding, in Iran, widespread protests that have imperiled the rule of the ayatollahs more seriously than at any point since the fall of the Shah in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. And for Europe, of course, the threatening century ahead became clear last year on February 24 when Russia launched its unprovoked aggression against Ukraine. There was as well more evidence of instability and threats to peace in the former Third World.

These problems, starting with an increasingly apparent China-Russia entente, constitute global threats that require a united Western response. America must lead this response, most importantly because its vital national interests are endangered by each of these spreading threats. What our allies and friends in Asia and Europe must recognize, however, is that they too face a global struggle, and need to participate fully in the response. Chancellor Olaf Scholtz seemed to have recognized this imperative shortly after Russia’s aggression when he announced a zeitenwende in German security policy. Unfortunately, despite a few modest steps, the “sea change” has not occurred. That must change, as should Macron’s attitude toward NATO.

The January 13 Kishida-Biden summit was an historic opportunity. Just prior to the meeting, Japan’s leader Fumio Kishida announced a bigger policy shift even than Scholtz, amending de facto its pacifist Constitution, a long-time goal of his predecessor Shinzo Abe. Clearly responding to the massive threats posed by China and North Korea, Kishida pledged that Tokyo would double its defense spending to 2% of GDP (the NATO target) in five years. If Japan does so, it will have the world’s third biggest military after America and China. Kishida’s decision followed decades of quiet internal debate about whether Japan had become a “normal nation,” one that could be trusted to maintain its self-defense, together with the US, its closest ally. Germany needs to have the same debate, and come to the same conclusion.

Equally important, Russia’s attack on Ukraine, and the manifest political support provided by China, accelerated Japan’s decision, and is changing other Asian views in many important ways. Under Abe, Tokyo led efforts to energize the Asian “Quad” (Japan, India, Australia, and the US), and South Korea is now selling Poland weapons. Not having dense alliance relationships like NATO means that Asia’s hub-and-spoke bilateral alliances with Washington have a long way to go before there could constitute East and South Asian collective-defense arrangements comparable to the North Atlantic, but events are moving fast.

Meanwhile, neither Europe nor America can afford more mistakes or timidity. The global threats we already know, and many we do not, are advancing, not receding. The next two years will therefore amount to a “window of vulnerability.” China and Russia (the world’s two greatest strategic threats), as well as terrorists, proliferators, and rogue states will seek to exploit the current environment before the West is prepared.
The outcome of America’s upcoming 2024 presidential elections could well shape Washington’s foreign policy for the rest of this century. In all probability, neither Trump nor Biden will be the candidates of their respective parties, and the contests for the Republican and Democratic nominations will be wide open. Given the breadth and dangers of the national-security threats, there is also every prospect that foreign and defense issues will be far more central to the 2024 than in other post-Cold War US elections.

Although isolationists have recently gotten more than their share of press attention, they still represent a very small portion of the American electorate. The real question is whether the Republican Party has within it a new Ronald Reagan to forge and develop the security structures that will protect the Free World in yet another American Century. We shall see.

 

John Bolton is an avowed conservative and one of the most outspoken hawks in Washington. Donald Trump's former national security adviser is said to have aspirations for the US presidency.